Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage: An Integrated Framework Based on the MOP–PLUS–InVEST Model and an Applied Case Study in Hangzhou, East China

Land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) is an important factor affecting carbon storage. It of great practical significance to quantify the relationship between LUCC and storage for regional ecological protection sustainable socio-economic development. In this study, we proposed integrated framework based on multiobjective programming (MOP), patch-level land-use simulation (PLUS) model, valuation ecosystem service trade-offs (InVEST) model. First, used InVEST model explore spatial temporal evolution characteristics in Hangzhou from 2000 2020 using land-cover data. Second, constructed four scenarios natural development (ND), economic (ED), (EP), balanced (BD) Markov chain MOP, then simulated distribution land cover 2030 with PLUS Third, was predict 2030. Finally, conducted a correlation Hangzhou’s delineated zoning Hangzhou. The results showed that: (1) artificial surfaces grew significantly, while cultivated decreased significantly 2020. overall trend decrease storage, changing areas were characterized by local aggregation sporadic distribution. (2) surfaces, water bodies, shrubland will continue increase up 2030, grassland decrease. BD scenario can effectively achieve multiple objectives (3) decline EP have highest which mitigate loss. (4) inextricably linked cover, high–high concentration low–low concentration. study provide decision support other cities Yangtze River Delta region.